Apple has launched iOS 18, which supports RCS, although RCS Business Messaging (RBM) is not yet widely available. It is expected to become prevalent in the U.S. within months. As users adopt iOS 18, SMS and MMS usage will decline significantly, with predictions suggesting an 85-90% drop in P2P SMS by the end of 2025. However, many small businesses will likely take longer to transition to RBM, continuing to use A2P SMS. The migration to RBM will be gradual and must ensure that vulnerable populations remain connected until the transition is complete, requiring further consumer education on messaging security and spam.
Apple
Those of you that know me, know that for the last 25 years, plus, I’ve been a huge advocate of SMS as well as MMS as primary mobile communications channels. And I’ve never, ever predicted or even contemplated that it will eventually end. Well, my friends, that day is fast approaching. I bet you never thought you’d see me commit to that.
If you recall we talked about the original announcement on November 16, 2023, that Apple would support RCS in 2024. The 2024 Apple WWDC is right around the corner, and I believe that we’ll hear a bit more about this announcement for the next version of iOS.
So why do I believe that this marks the “beginning” of the end of SMS/MMS. I say this because, these days, a very significant part of the world is either Android or iOS. Certainly, in the United States, still volume-wise – the largest SMS/MMS market in the world, is about 55% iOS and 45% Android. 99% of the world is now Android (71%) or iOS (28%) and the majority of the SMS (and MMS) messages that are Person-to-Person (P2P) flow between these two mobile operating systems – either within a single Mobile Network Operator (MNO) or between two MNOs.
Now the European Union recently announced a rule in the Digital Markets Act (DMA) to require messaging app developers to enable their apps to interoperate – that is, to make them work together. For example, if I’m a WhatsApp user, my message might be received by an iMessage user, if that user does not use WhatsApp. Additionally, if I’m an Android user with RCS, my message could be received by a Telegram user or even an iMessage user. There could be endless combinations.
While the new iPhone 12 lineup will be a great boost for Apple, this is an even better boost for 5G – not only in the United States, but around the world.
It’s the first year of a new decade. It’s an election year during a volatile time. There’s a lot of pending decisions and growing technologies. It’s going to be exciting!
At the beginning of 2019, we were in an extended government shutdown, but that blip is now ancient history. Since then, so much has happened – much of it good, but some of it not so good. 5G became a commercial reality; IoT flourished, but both also managed to disappoint in some areas. In our messaging world, rich communication services (RCS) gained ground, but mobile operators lagged, despite many actions from Google. Still, gains were made in all of these key areas.
I published my first set of mobile predictions in January 2008. This is my tenth installment. My blog has had several iterations since it was initially part of the Sybase company blog space (we were known as Sybase 365, back then). When SAP acquired Sybase, most of my postings were migrated to the original SCN for Mobile area and now to the “new” SAP Community Network blogs. Some of the very old postings (before February 2011) are unfortunately no longer available in existing SAP archives.