Yes, I missed last year. It’s been TWO years since I did this. Unfortunately, I had to skip […]
Android
Apple has launched iOS 18, which supports RCS, although RCS Business Messaging (RBM) is not yet widely available. It is expected to become prevalent in the U.S. within months. As users adopt iOS 18, SMS and MMS usage will decline significantly, with predictions suggesting an 85-90% drop in P2P SMS by the end of 2025. However, many small businesses will likely take longer to transition to RBM, continuing to use A2P SMS. The migration to RBM will be gradual and must ensure that vulnerable populations remain connected until the transition is complete, requiring further consumer education on messaging security and spam.
Those of you that know me, know that for the last 25 years, plus, I’ve been a huge advocate of SMS as well as MMS as primary mobile communications channels. And I’ve never, ever predicted or even contemplated that it will eventually end. Well, my friends, that day is fast approaching. I bet you never thought you’d see me commit to that.
If you recall we talked about the original announcement on November 16, 2023, that Apple would support RCS in 2024. The 2024 Apple WWDC is right around the corner, and I believe that we’ll hear a bit more about this announcement for the next version of iOS.
So why do I believe that this marks the “beginning” of the end of SMS/MMS. I say this because, these days, a very significant part of the world is either Android or iOS. Certainly, in the United States, still volume-wise – the largest SMS/MMS market in the world, is about 55% iOS and 45% Android. 99% of the world is now Android (71%) or iOS (28%) and the majority of the SMS (and MMS) messages that are Person-to-Person (P2P) flow between these two mobile operating systems – either within a single Mobile Network Operator (MNO) or between two MNOs.
Well, as I write this my LinkedIn feed is starting to explode with articles from TechCrunch, 9to5Mac, and […]
Once again, it’s prediction time again. But this post is about how we did last year. As has been my standard, we look back at last year’s predictions to see how accurate they were. For 2019, I was 86% correct, which improved on my 2018 forecasts, which were 81.5% correct.
It is once again time for my annual (14th consecutive to be specific) predictions for the mobile industry. When I wrote last year’s predictions, I (and really no one) could have foreseen the momentous events that 2020 brought the world. From the global COVID-19 pandemic to the significant Black Lives Matter protests, and actions, climate-related events, to the US presidential election, its aftermath and more. All have impacted the wireless / mobile industry, but in many ways, the mobile industry has responded well to the pandemic, which has been the overriding issue for the planet in 2020.
Over the past few years interesting phenomena has been occurring in the United States as well as Canada. Consumers continue to text each other (called Person-to-Person or P2P); however, unlike in many other regions such as Asia-Pacific and Europe, they continue to use SMS at rates not enjoyed in these other regions for several years.
Welcome to 2014! Before I embark on my 7th consecutive year of mobile industry predictions, let’s wrap up 2013 with a review of last year’s predictions. Overall, it has been another exciting, challenging, but overall profitable year for the mobile industry. We saw some rises and falls, new iPads, a new iPhone, new Samsung devices, new mobile OS’s, consolidations, acquisitions, as well as a myriad of new products and innovations.