Here we go once again: another 2015 prediction article. This is my 8th annual predictions blog posting and I can say it never has been more difficult to prognosticate on where this industry is headed. Mobile in the context of an operating environment has never been more important to consumers and businesses, worldwide. Today, if a business or enterprise does not include mobile engagement as a priority, then I believe they are behind before they even begin.
SMS
Over the past couple of years, people have asked me both publicly and privately if I thought SMS was dying or is a non-viable communications channel. My answer has always been emphatically that SMS is and will continue to be a viable choice for text-based communications – both for enterprises and brands as well as person-to-person (P2P).
Over the last few weeks, the world remained riveted to the various games of the World Cup 2014. Some were early disappointments such as Spain; however, many were surprised just how far their own country made it into the final tournament. Social media and mobile engagement were also big winners in the 2014 World Cup. These channels are immensely popular today and will continue to grow in influence as they are now part of most people’s daily lives. Both Facebook and Twitter had set usage records during the World Cup final. In fact, the Wall Street Journal article noted that Twitter beat its own record of 580,166 Tweets per minute during Germany’s defeat of Brazil in the semi-final by reaching 618,725 tweets per minute during the Argentina – Germany final.
Over the last 4 to 5 years, the world has witnessed a meteoric rise of a variety of Over-the-top (OTT) messaging apps – both for consumers and enterprises. Today, there are a dizzying variety of texting choices — most of them operating as “islands” (albeit some are exceedingly large – WhatsApp with over 500 million monthly active users [MAUs] is a prime example); however, in some markets such as the United States and Canada, SMS-interoperable OTT messaging solutions have garnered the majority share of OTT messaging apps (we call these SMS-enabled OTT messaging providers: NUVOs – for Network Unaffiliated Virtual Operators).
Since the acquisition of WhatsApp by Facebook, just prior to the 2014 Mobile World Congress, there has been considerable press about Facebook and WhatsApp. In the last few days, the latest headlines have been about how WhatsApp handled a record 64 billion messages in a 24 hour period. That is a fantastic number and it represents magnificent growth. I’m not trying to take away from this brilliant achievement, but I must point out that WhatsApp subscribers didn’t really generate 64 billion messages.
In the late afternoon on Wednesday, February 19th (Eastern Time, USA), Facebook announced that it was acquiring WhatsApp for $19 billion in cash, stock, and restricted stock. While I’m not a financier, I think $19 billion was a bit much as I’ve read that it roughly translates to $42 or so per WhatsApp subscriber. I think it was a good move, nonetheless.
Online buying and selling is almost as old as the Internet itself. eCommerce companies such as Amazon and eBay are true pioneers and their successes are undisputed. Many other sites, dedicated to buying and selling have followed – focused on specific product categories and brands — launch every day. A significant number of them have associated mobile apps; although most were specifically designed for the desktop, with mobile as an afterthought. Increasingly, eCommerce sites now utilize Responsive Web Design (RWD) – those that provide an optimal user interface experience, regardless of the display type from mobile to desktop. In virtually all cases, mobile was an add-on – in other words, the site, product, or brand, first builds their online presence and the mobile views are added later.
Welcome to 2014! Before I embark on my 7th consecutive year of mobile industry predictions, let’s wrap up 2013 with a review of last year’s predictions. Overall, it has been another exciting, challenging, but overall profitable year for the mobile industry. We saw some rises and falls, new iPads, a new iPhone, new Samsung devices, new mobile OS’s, consolidations, acquisitions, as well as a myriad of new products and innovations.
NOTE: This post revisited the SAP Mobile Services 2013 Mobile Operator Guide. The link to that resource in the blog post may not be relevant. If you really want a copy of this guide, contact me. I may be able to provide either a hard copy or soft copy.
When you think of SMS messaging, typically people refer to messaging via mobile phones through Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). Over the past few years, we’ve seen the rise of the so-called NUVOs – Network Unaffiliated Virtual Operator – a type of OTT service provider who offers phone number based and app-based messaging on smart devices that also interworks with the existing SMS ecosystem. This means that a NUVO subscriber can send and receive messages from an AT&T or a T-Mobile or Verizon subscriber.