What Might This Look Like and What Will be the Impact?
Those of you that know me, know that for the last 25 years, plus, I’ve been a huge advocate of SMS as well as MMS as primary mobile communications channels. And I’ve never, ever predicted or even contemplated that it will eventually end. Well, my friends, that day is fast approaching. I bet you never thought you’d see me commit to that.
If you recall we talked about the original announcement on November 16, 2023, that Apple would support RCS in 2024. The 2024 Apple WWDC is right around the corner, and I believe that we’ll hear a bit more about this announcement for the next version of iOS.
So why do I believe that this marks the “beginning” of the end of SMS/MMS. I say this because, these days, a very significant part of the world is either Android or iOS. Certainly, in the United States, still volume-wise – the largest SMS/MMS market in the world, is about 55% iOS and 45% Android. 99% of the world is now Android (71%) or iOS (28%) and the majority of the SMS (and MMS) messages that are Person-to-Person (P2P) flow between these two mobile operating systems – either within a single Mobile Network Operator (MNO) or between two MNOs.
So, if the Apple-Android alliance come to full fruition, starting in the autumn of 2024, coinciding with the launch of iOS 18, messages between iOS and Android will no longer use SMS/MMS as the default or fallback channel for delivery of these messages. In the United States along, that’s probably over 75% of the SMS/MMS messages. The other 25% are A2P or business messaging AND other non-MNO messaging apps and clients (which we will discuss further in this post).
One of the biggest unknowns, still is whether or not specific Business RCS messages (known as RCS Business Messaging or RBM) will be able to be resolved and rendered on Apple devices (this includes more than just chat or text messages, but also Rich Cards, Rich Card Carousels, suggested chip lists, and action buttons). Some in the industry have speculated that once an RCS message is within the Google Jibe Hub (the primary, global messaging hub that connects all operators and enables RCS messages to flow between operators and businesses), and since that hub is connected to Apple’s Messages ecosystem that those devices will be able to render RBM messages. After all, they are supposed to still comply with Universal Profile.
Let’s unpack potential Apple support for RBM features.
Part of the RBM API is to determine whether the recipient device is RCS capable. If an end device doesn’t support certain RCS features, then the sending brand (business) must include contingencies to “fallback” to some other method for that recipient as to provide as much of the capabilities that RCS would have provided. So, we always must query MSISDN (or phone number) of the recipient device to determine if the device can render the RCS message. What if that device is an RCS-capable iPhone? Herein is where we (our industry) don’t know what capabilities the Google / RCS ecosystem may return when the end recipient is an Apple device.
I’m personally on the fence on this one. I think Apple just might be fine with supporting most RBM messages – especially chat messages as they enable the two-way conversational interoperability that we see with P2P RCS between Apple devices and Android devices.
For example, the capabilities query might indicate the device only supports Chat (or Text) messages but does not support Rich Cards or Carousels. Certainly, different versions of Android may return support for different capabilities as well.
It is entirely possible and quite likely that querying an MSISDN that belongs to an iPhone may result in No Capabilities (which is what happens now).
Truth is, we don’t know. But we hope that Google/Apple will support at least some RBM capabilities, even just to render these messages. Any replies to the brands would be normal RCS “chat” as if they were responding to some Android subscriber. Overall, support of RBM messages would provide a good experience for all iPhone users, and not subject them to various fallback methodologies such as SMS or a Web-based fallback.
I’m personally on the fence on this one. I think Apple just might be fine with supporting most RBM messages – especially chat messages as they enable the two-way conversational interoperability that we see with P2P RCS between Apple devices and Android devices.
In this case, it is between an Apple device and a brand or business that is using RBM. The effect is still the same – conversational chat.
But… Apple is also stickler for security and their own customer experiences. I should note that Apple Business Chat does not allow a brand to initiate messages to an iOS subscriber. The subscriber must initiate the interaction. That is why you see very little, if any “spam” from Apple Business Chat. But then, not having that rich capability limits the Apple user’s ability to engage with businesses that might want to send you rich notifications or a richer, interactive experience that RBM provides.
Many CPaaS (Content Provider as a Service) providers are really pushing the fact that the Apple-Google alliance (if you can call it that) for RCS will enable Apple users to engage with businesses that use RBM. Truth is, that may not be the case.
I honestly don’t think we will know until some of Beta iOS 18 versions are released, later in the summer – if then. Then again, it may be later in the autumn before P2P RCS is capable on iOS devices.
Unfortunately, the upcoming announcement may also result in two tiers for Messaging Users.
At least initially – those that can enjoy the benefits of RCS (Apple iOS 18 users and Android Messages user), and those that are locked out (the over 20-25 million users of 2nd-Line apps and UCaaS (Universal Communications as a Service) clients that are perfectly capable of supporting RCS Universal Profile). Most UCaaS clients today support SMS and MMS as one of the messaging features.
But recently, 2nd-Line App providers (basically OTT voice and messaging apps that assign a 2nd phone number to provide this service) have been told that they are not welcome to interoperate in the RCS ecosystem – even just for P2P, notwithstanding RBM (which could also benefit them, greatly). These OTT services are the lifeline of many low-income, migrant, and disadvantaged demographics (who must acquire phone numbers from sources other than MNOs) and many of these service providers are ad-based and provide voice and texting services for free or at a much lower price-point than offered by traditional MNOs. Some even offer lower-cost mobile data that can be purchased at a lower price than what is offered by the MNOs.
If we, as an industry, want this move to RCS – P2P or A2P (e.g. RBM) to be successful, then let’s not lock out certain demographics or classes of users, just because they aren’t traditional native iOS or Android users.
Will the MNOs, Google, and Apple not allow these OTTs the ability to interoperate through RCS because their messaging clients are not Android Messages or Apple Messages, which, frankly, discriminates against disadvantaged demographics by shrinking the opportunity for them to acquire mobile services. Or might this be an oversight on the decision-makers who don’t understand the nuances of the North American mobile ecosystem. I am hoping this is the latter.
Many (not all) of these companies that provide these services want and are perfectly willing to incorporate Universal Profile RCS into their client platforms to be able to interoperate using RCS rather than SMS/MMS when possible – which – to be frank – will soon be a large number of MNO subscribers. But right now, according to many who are pursing this option, they’ve been told no … or at least not yet.
Additionally, for the now millions of UCaaS users – typically employees of businesses that have purchased cloud-based telephony and messaging services from one the many UCaaS providers in the market today, they too will be locked out of the benefits of RCS. Why? Because they are not Apple or Google Messaging clients.
Like the 2nd-Line App providers, these UCaaS providers are perfectly willing and capable of supporting RCS Universal Profile and connecting into the Google-Jibe hub so their users may communicate with anyone else using RCS vs. SMS/MMS that they are using today.
For both of these classes of users, once they support the ability to create a fully compliant (to RCS Universal Profile) RCS message, that should be indistinguishable from one created on Apple or Android.
And for that matter, the UCaaS and 2nd-Line apps might not have the hangups that Apple has about RBM, so here are another available 20-25 million users that could potentially be available to businesses that want to use RBM.
To me, any limitations on the non-Apple/Android Messages apps doesn’t make sense.
If we, as an industry, want this move to RCS – P2P or A2P (e.g. RBM) to be successful, then let’s not lock out certain demographics or classes of users, just because they aren’t traditional native iOS or Android users.
Now, back to the original question. Is this the beginning of the end of SMS/MMS?
The short answer is YES, I believe that it is. As more Apple users upgrade to iOS 18, their messaging with Android users should automatically shift to underlying RCS with the features and capabilities that RCS provides within Apple messages. Within Android, the Messages app works for many older releases, so there will be much less Android-to-Android that is SMS and MMS.
Oh, and this is not about Blue vs. Green texting bubbles. That is immaterial. The important thing is the typing, delivery, and read notifications; ease of media and file sharing… just a more seamless experience with end-to-end encryption for all participants in the conversation. I like the CNET article that says, “RCS on iPhones Will Make Texting Android Users Feel Less Archaic.”
In 2022, CTIA reported that 2.1 trillion SMS and MMS messages were exchanged. For 2023, that number probably dropped to right at 2 trillion. As iOS 18 won’t be launched until late Q3, early Q4, expect maybe a 25-30% drop in overall SMS and MMS traffic for 2024. But in 2025, I believe the USA SMS and MMS traffic will drop to well under 1 trillion – possibly close to 500 billion. Certainly, a significant part of the remaining traffic will be A2P (or Business to Consumer traffic), which will still have reliance on the 10DLC and Short Codes that had grown exponentially in the last 2 years. Note that I use the USA statistics, as this is still the largest SMS and MMS market in the world, but expect the same percentages, internationally.
But, if the Apple/Google connectivity powers do not reject RBM messages into the non-Android (Apple, RCS-enabled OTTs) ecosystem, then this will also reduce A2P (10DLC, short code) traffic as well, and we would see further reductions.
And before I finish – I’d like to offer one word of caution. Please don’t price business RCS out of existence. As it will be replacing SMS/MMS, a significant amount of it should be comparable to SMS/MMS pricing. 10DLC has been a very good option for UCaaS and many small businesses. Don’t price them out as they migrate to RCS Business Messaging.
It’s going to be a very interesting summer and autumn for the messaging industry.